adding a features section to metacritic was f***ing genius. this article was thorough, well thought-out and uses scientific analysis to back up its viewpoints/predictions. very well done. this gets better every year.

personally, the blind side? really? precious owns it in the tear-jerker, inspirational movie quota. why?

district 9: more exciting use of its ideas than most others would have done with the same concept. softens its brains in third act for non-stop action,
(as all-profitable recent sci-fi movies in america have to do). will never, ever win but was nominated to give it credit for standing out and giving relevance to it’s genre.

they will do an upset and give the hurt locker best picture just to get cameron off his high horse and attempt to prove that they dont lead towards more populist fare. was pretty entertaining though, of course the CGI/3D was the best part.

but seriously, the blind side? the blind side??? crash and the sixth sense made more sense being nominated in comparison.

probably a ploy to get the 20 million people who saw the blind side a reason to watch the oscars. it works for what it is, but precious does this kind of thing so much better. i dont see oscar quality anywhere in the blind side…

except maybe in sandra bullock’s a**.

I don’t really have much to say other than I agree with really everything epixsavior said. I keep complaining to all of my friends about how The Blind Side was picked and a great film like Invictus was snuffed.
And as much as I want District 9 to win for its originality, brains, and balls-out action, I know it won’t, but I can still pray.

This is spectacular. I visited Metacritic every day anyway, but this is a huge jackpot bonus.

Anyway, I’ve been a believer in the underdog ever since by beloved Crash pulled one out for me in 06. The academy has done alright, but them picking LOTR scares the shit out of me. That gives Avatar hope, as does its ridiculous box office. But I have a major crush on possibly my favorite movie of the last decade, Up in the Air. I know everyone’s not in love, but the fact that the Academy got behind Crash (and the fact that most people who liked the movie loved it) gives me hope. Inglourious should be considered a contender. Everyone loves Tarantino, and it was seriously considered for Golden Globe Drama. Great cast, box office, editing, plot, cool enough for the Academy, dramatic enough too. Hurt Locker wouldn’t suck. Avatar, though, would. It’s simply not the best movie this year, plain and simple.

Ah, very impressive, but you’ve forgotten the most important factor … POLITICS!!!

Whether it be giving the award to ‘black’ actors when they technically didn’t deserve them (i.e.: Denzel Washington & Halle Berry in the same year), or recently with the lefty-greeny vote giving Al Gore the award for his monstrously-exaggerated ‘documentary’, the Academy will go with the left every time.

As such, which do you think they’ll pick, a movie that shows true heroism in the face of war and adversity (The Hurt Locker), or a blatantly anti-American, green-loving fairy tale (Avatar)???

The defense rests …

Metacritic just gets better and better

Good feature, I like both Avatar and the Hurt Locker, so it seems I won’t be disappointed either way. =)

You’ve left out what is probably the single most predictive award in terms of the best picture Oscar–the Director’s Guild Award, which Kathyrn Bigelow (the director of “The Hurt Locker”) won on January 30. While James Cameron won this award in 1998 for directing Titanic, he didn’t win this year.

With “The Hurt Locker” having won best picture and director from the Broadcast Film Critics, the Producers Guild Award and the Directors Guild Award, and having tied with Avatar for the most Oscar nominations, it is the frontrunner at this point.

Avatar honestly looked like the dumbest movie ever, until I went and saw it…then saw it again and again. It gets better every time when you realize that a ot of creativity went into the movie, and that it wasn’t just ripped off of Pocahontas or Dances with Wolves like everyone says. I think it should win the best picture award for revolutionalizing the way movies are made. People watch movies to be entertained, and this movie really gets the message across.

I agree with Steve – the DGA has accurately predicted the Best Picture Oscar for 58 out of the past 60 years. Given that Avatar also lacks acting or writing noms, that easily puts Hurt Locker as the frontrunner for Best Picture. And quite frankly, I’m praying it does win. While Avatar is far from the best of the year, and as such doesn’t deserve the award. My faith has been shaken recently when the Academy chose to do things like snub Children of Men for a BP nom and choose The Lives of Others over Pan’s Labyrinth, and if they choose Avatar this year that will pretty much be the final nail in the coffin.

The last time a movie without either an acting or writing nomination won best picture was Grand Hotel back in 1932. That’s the history Avatar is going against. Also I think people underestimate the Academy’s resistance to science fiction. Lord of the Rings in not science fiction, it is fantasy. That said Avatar can still win BP. I feel pretty strongly, though am not 100%, that Bigalow will take Best Director. On picture I think it’s a three way race between Avatar, Hurt Locker, and Inglorious Basterds. The latter is a bigtime longshot, but at this point it has a better chance than Up in the Air which may very well get shut out on awards night.

I’m a DGA Member and in 61 years of DGA Awards, the DGA feature winner has won for the same film as the Best Picture Oscar winner 49 out of 61 times – so has the DGA has differed with the Academy 12 times over the years, not twice. This year’s winner, Kathryn Bigelow, is the first woman to win the feature film DGA Award and if she wins the Oscar for directing, will also be the first woman to do so. She has a very good chance of winning and that will be the consolation prize for “Hurt Locker” because with only $16 million in total worldwide revenue, her film is not likely to beat “Avatar” for Best Picture at a time when the Academy needs to reconnect with the general public. The shutout of “Dark Knight” last year caused such an uproar that the 10 slots were revived for the first time in 66 years (1943), so there is little chance they will pick a low grossing film this year to avoid mass cultural rejection of the entire award.

District 9 was the best film of 2009. It wiped the floor with Avatar in terms of writing. While its not as visually dynamic, it was the better film. It might have a chance because it was made with a tiny budget and an inexperienced writer, while Avatar needed a 500 million budget to be made (and i don’t think it was worth it).

District 9 gets my vote, but its not happening because the Academy wouldn’t know a good movie if it smacked them in the head

While I knows that it does not stand a chance of winning when matched against the monolith that is “Avatar”, and the critical favorite “The Hurt Locker”, my fingers are crossed for “Up”. It was huge commercial success, and had wonderful visuals, and masterful, heartfelt storytelling that connected with children and adults alike because it was simply a fantastic, timeless film. As an animation buff, I find it frustrating that animated films such as “Up” have been disregarded in previous years, as this article points out. Excellent animated movies have frequently been shortchanged by the Academy, who don’t even give them a fighting chance for any of the “big” awards. I mean, if you take a look at some of the films up for Best Animated Feature this year (Coraline, Princess and The Frog, and The Fantastic Mr. Fox), they have performed just as well, if not better amongst critics than many nominated for Best Picture, in addition to having better box office performances. It seems unfair to me that brilliant films like those from Pixar (”Wall-E”) or Hayao Miazaki (His excellent “Ponyo” was snubbed this year), amongst others, are never “taken seriously”. Instead they are relegated to the cinematic ghetto of Best Animated Picture, where they hardly have a shot of even being nominated for Best Picture, even if a nomination is rightly deserved.

MARK HANSSON SAID: “With only $16 million in total worldwide revenue, ['The Hurt Locker'] is not likely to beat ‘Avatar’ for Best Picture at a time when the Academy needs to reconnect with the general public. The shutout of ‘Dark Knight’ last year caused such an uproar that the 10 slots were revived for the first time in 66 years (1943), so there is little chance they will pick a low grossing film this year to avoid mass cultural rejection of the entire award.”

MY REPSONSE: You never know what will happen, and “Avatar” could still pull out a win of the BP Oscar. For a while I had no doubt that “Avatar” would win based upon its box office. But the film has not done very well with the major Guilds–the Directors Guild (which Bigelow won), the Producers Guild, the Screen Actors Guild and the Writers Guild. It was big surprise when “The Hurt Locker” won the Producers Guild; Avatar’s box office prowess should have made it a cinch for an award from film producers. Moreover, “Avatar” didn’t receive a single nomination from the Screen Actors Guild, and it is very unlikely to win the Writers Guild–the film’s screenplay is not nominated for an Oscar and the script is generally regarded as the weakest part of the film.

In terms of the Guild awards, there is no comparison between “Titanic” (Cameron’s last Oscar winning film) and “Avartar. “Titanic” won the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild, and the Screen Actors Guild nominated the film for its best cast awards and gave Gloria Stuart its best supporting actress award–Stuart tied with Kim Basinger.

So I still think that “The Hurt Locker” is the favorite to win at this point. Of course, with AMPAS, nothing is ever for certain.

“Avatar” can’t win. It benefited from the expansion of the Best Picture nominee list. “The Hurt Locker” has to win, or else the Academy Awards will lose what credibility they still have left. “Avatar” versus “The Hurt Locker” has 1977 written all over it. This is “Star Wars” versus “Annie Hall” II. And 1993, too, pertaining to the Best Director race, in which Kathryn Bigelow goes against James Cameron, the battle of the sexes, similar to Jane Campion’s bid to beat out Steven Spielberg, when “The Piano” competed with “Schindler’s List”.

“Avatar” was so bad it did not even deserve a nomination. The Academy cannot lower itself to pick the best film of the year based on what the general public thought of it. While it looked spectacular, Avatar has nothing else going for it. “The Hurt Locker,” on the other hand, had an amazing script, powerful characters, and most amazingly, portrayed the war in Iraq with minimal bias or intended message. “Lord of the Rings” is incomparable to “Avatar” as LOTR, besides looking spectacular, had a great story, script, and acting to go along with it. LOTR deserved to win. The American public has consistently been a terrible indicator for what a great movie is. It is the same public who spent millions upon millions of dollars on movies like “Spiderman 3″ and “Indiana Jones 4.” Simply because a film garners a lot of box office proceeds does not mean it deserves to win best picture, let alone be nominated for it.

thank you metacritic…this features add so much value to this site…unbelievably good!
Very well thought-out and written. Just the right mix between facts, numbers and text and opinion.
Metacritic just gets better and better…

As incredible as the effects were in Avatar, I don’t think that should warrant a Best Picture oscar. The plot was far from anything special. If it’s going to be between Avatar and The Hurt Locker, its the latter that deserves it: original plot, and fantastic acting. Though if I had my way, Inglorious Basterds would get this award. It’s better than both of those movies in my opinion.

District 9 is the best movie from 2010. It totally mops the floor with avatar pony tail.

“And the award for Best Picture goes to…………James Cameron for Avatar”!
It’s gotta be `in the bag` for Avatar. Totally mind blowing effects and has opened up a whole new era for future film making. I’ve been to the cinema twice to see it (with my family) and each time it actually got a standing ovation from the viewing public – in a packed house.

Such box office revenue gives a crystal clear indication of the impact it’s had, and continues to have on the public, with many eagerly awaiting Avatar’s release on to Blu-Ray & DVD just to watch it again and again.

I did watch the Hurt Locker and enjoyed it, although couldn’t watch it again. Avatar however, I could watch over and over, including others I have talked to about the film.

The Academy shouldn’t `play it safe` and just opt for the previous awards pattern from other awards (Critics, Baftas etc). It should maintain its own completely independant view and credibility and let the award go to the true deserving winners, to include BP for the awe-inspiring, exciting, jaw-dropping `Avatar`.

Although I strongly believe that Avatar should win both Best Picture and Best Director, as well as finish with the most awards that night (for Best Effects, Editing etc), it’ll probably win Best Picture, with Best Director actually going to K.Bigelow.

Predictions for the major awards:
Best Picture: Avatar
Best Director: The Hurt Locker

(Most awards for the night: Avatar)

Ps. I also agree with Mikey’s and Mark Hansson’s comments above.
Also, as others have stated, what a great informative site. Such a clear detailed breakdown so well structured, a brilliant job!!!
Now saved as one of my `favorites`! Cheers!!!!!

District 9 is underrated

David Johnson are you serious? Of course avatar is a green-loving fairy tale it is telling us that we need to fix the earth because we are killing it slowly and as for anti- America…where did you get that from? Some a-hole who’s blog you read? Avatar is not anti-America it is anti-destroy the earth so we can live on it for another couple thousand years or so. Avatar didn’t win because the director of the hurt locker is a woman and it is about a current event that’s it, that’s the only reasons it won period.

What a complete shambles!! I know James Cameron isn’t the most liked person in the industry and that Avatar cost sooooo much, but good god it certainly deserved to win Best Picture. These awards should be left entirely for the public to decide, via online and telephone votes, as well as results of global ticket sales. I appreciate everyone has their own personal taste in films and that some will and won’t agree with the 2010 results, but there’s no doubt that with the impact Avatar had on the viewing public and how greatly accepted it was – it would have won hands down if it was a public vote worldwide, instead of being left for an `old skool` academy to decide.

Will we ever know the complete 100% truth why The Hurt Locker cleaned-up that night, particulary for the major awards (Best Picture & Best Director), I doubt it, although as David also suggested above, probably that it was female director and current event.